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D = Double There are many scenarios where the gambler's fallacy might superficially seem to apply, where it in fact does not. Blackjack, also known as twenty-one and pontoon in British English, is one of the most popular casino card games in the world. Much of blackjack's popularity is due to the mix of chance with elements of skill and decision making, and the publicity that surrounds the practice of card counting, a skill with which players can turn the odds of the game in their favor by making betting decisions based on the values of the cards known to remain in the deck. Blackjack's precursor was vingt-et-un ("twenty-one"), which originated in French casinos around 1700, and did not offer the 3:2 bonus for a two-card 21. Related links A joke told among mathematicians demonstrates the nature of the fallacy. When flying on an airplane, a man decides to always bring a bomb with him. "The chances of an airplane having a bomb on it are very small," he reasons, "and certainly the chances of having two are almost none!" The first casino I played gave me the option to deposit in ?'s (this is an exception rather than the rule). With the dollar to pound exchange rate it meant I received a bigger matched bonus and wouldn't have to pay any conversion charges when depositing any winnings. If the 'Player' has an initial total of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5, the 'Player' draws another card. The Theory of Blackjack, Peter Griffin, 1996 (1979), ISBN 0929712129 The gambler's fallacy is a logical fallacy which encompasses any of the following misconceptions: No need to be an expert. Probably the only bad thing about online casinos is that you can't bring a lady and charm her up, but then again if you already have a lady in your house you would not take her to play computer games now would you? [edit] The banker has now to decide whether he himself will draw a card, being guided in his decision partly by the cards he already holds, partly by the card (if any) drawn by the punter, and partly by what he may know or guess of the latter's mode of play. If he has hesitated over his decision, the banker may be pretty certain (unless such hesitation was an intentional blind) that his original point was five, and as the third card (if any) is exposed, his present point becomes equally a matter of certainty. The banker, having drawn or not drawn, as he may elect, exposes his cards, and receives or pays as the case may be. Ties neither win nor lose, but the stakes remain for the next hand. [edit] The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by considering the repeated toss of a coin. With a fair coin the chances of getting heads are exactly 0.5 (a half). The chances of it coming up heads twice in a row are 0.5?0.5=0.25 (a quarter). The probability of three heads in a row is 0.5?0.5×0.5= 0.125 (an eighth) and so on. Calculates interactively the probabilities and expectations for each possible card-distribution in the shoe Casino games When the probability of each event is not even, such as with a loaded die, a number which has come up more often in the past may very well continue to do so, if that number is favored by the weighting of the dice. This has been dubbed Nerd's Gullibility Fallacy -- assuming the coin indeed is fair and the gamblers are honest when it isn't the case. This is an example of Hume's principle: twenty times tails on row implies that it is far more likely that the premise of a fair coin is wrong and coin is forged, than that the initial premise is correct and the next toss will be fifty-fifty heads or tails. If neither party turns up his cards, this is an admission that neither has eight or nine. In this case the banker is bound to offer a third card. If the point of the punter is baccarat (i.e. cards together amounting to ten or twenty, = 0), one, two, three, or four, he accepts as a matter of course, replying, "Yes," or "Card." A third card is then given to him, face upwards. If his point if already six or seven, he will, equally as a matter of course, REFUSE the offered card. To accept a card with six or seven, or refuse with baccarat, one, two, three, or four (known in either case as a "false draw"), is a breach of the established procedure of the game, and brings down upon the head of the offender the wrath of his fellow-punters; indeed, in some circles he is made liable for any loss they may incur thereby, and in others is punishable by a fine. At the point of five, and no other, is it optional to the punter whether to take a card or not; nobody has the right to advise him, or to remark upon his decision. Doubles are permitted after splitting. Roulette Are you more likely to win the lottery by choosing the same numbers every time, or by choosing different numbers every time? (Answer: you are equally likely with either strategy. In reality, you may be better off choosing numbers in such a way as to reduce the risk of splitting the jackpot.) [edit] Deuces Wild At the end of the last betting round, if more than one player remains, there is a showdown in which the players reveal their previously hidden cards and evaluate their hands. The player with the best hand according to the poker variant being played wins the pot. There's a risk to going it alone. Splitting a maximum of once (to two hands)

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